[Federal Register: December 28, 2007 (Volume 72, Number 248)]
[Notices]
[Page 73771-73777]
From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]
[DOCID:fr28de07-53]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
RIN 0648-XE67
U.S. Climate Change Science Program Revised Research Plan Summary
AGENCY: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),
Department of Commerce.
ACTION: Notice of Publication of U.S. Climate Change Science Program
(CCSP) Revised Research Plan Summary and request for public comments.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: Pursuant to Section 104(f) the Global Change Research Act of
1990 (GCRA), the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Revised Research
Plan Summary is being published in the Federal Register for a 60-day
public comment period. The public comments received on the Revised
Research Plan Summary will be considered during the preparation of the
final Revised Research Plan as well as the Scientific Assessment
document required by Section 106 of the GCRA. The final version of the
full Revised Research Plan will be published on the CCSP web site.
Public comments received on the Revised Research Plan Summary will be
made available upon request.
DATES: Comments must be received by February 26, 2008.
ADDRESSES: A formatted version of The U.S. Climate Change Science
Program Revised Research Plan Summary is available on the CCSP Web site
at:
http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2008/summary/default.htmComments
should be sent to Dr. Fabien Laurier, Climate Change Science
Program Office
at:research-plan-summary@usgcrp.gov
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dr. Patricia Jellison, Climate Change
Science Program Office, 1717 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Suite 250,
Washington, DC 20006, Telephone: (202) 223-6262
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Summary of Revised Research Plan for the US Climate Change Science
Program (CCSP)
I. Introduction
About the Revised Research Plan
This Revised Research Plan is an update to the 2003 Strategic Plan
of the US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) (http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/final/default.htm
), a
document which was developed via a thorough, open and transparent
multi-year process involving a wide range of scientists and managers. A
significant part of this process was the review of both the draft and
final plan by the National Academy of Sciences (http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11565 for the draft plan; http://www.nap.edu/
/A>
an important role in influencing the 2003 Strategic Plan's development.
The Strategic Plan has long-term value to CCSP, but like any
strategic plan, it must be supplemented by shorter-term revisions that
take into account both advances in the science and changes in societal
needs, and CCSP has an ongoing long-range strategic planning process to
ensure that these needs are met. The Revised Research Plan (hereinafter
referred to as the Research Plan) draws on CCSP's long-range planning
process and provides this update, in compliance with the terms of the
Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990.
In the Research Plan, the reader will find several things: (1) an
updated statement of vision, goals and capabilities consistent with
CCSP's current Strategic Plan but reflecting both scientific progress
and the evolution of the Program based on accomplishments and evolving
societal and environmental needs; (2) a description of the relationship
of the Research Plan to the current Scientific Assessment; (3)
highlights of ways in which the program
[[Page 73772]]
is evolving in the context of the progress made over the years 2003-
2007 since the Strategic Plan was put in place, and a description of
the priorities that have emerged as a result; and 4) a description of
research plans for the coming years, in order to build upon the work
envisioned in the Strategic Plan and begun over the past four years.
The purpose of this Summary of the Research Plan is to provide
information about the structure, scope and content of the Research
Plan, in order to solicit and facilitate public comment about the Plan.
About the Climate Change Science Program
The vision of CCSP is: A nation and the global community empowered
with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities
of change in the climate and related environmental systems. The core
precept that motivates the CCSP is that the best possible scientific
knowledge should be the foundation for the information required to
manage climate variability and change and related aspects of global
change. Thus the mission of the CCSP is to:Facilitate the creation and
application of knowledge of the Earth's global environment through
research, observations, decision support, and communication.
CCSP's five strategic goals are:
CCSP Goal (1): Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and
present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and
improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change
CCSP Goal (2): Improve quantification of the forces
bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and related systems
CCSP Goal (3): Reduce uncertainty in projections of how
the Earth's climate and related systems may change in the future
CCSP Goal (4): Understand the sensitivity and adaptability
of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to
climate and related global changes
CCSP Goal (5): Explore the uses and identify the limits of
evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate
variability and change
In order to understand CCSP's role in fostering and coordinating US
federally-funded climate change research, it is important to understand
what CCSP is and the role CCSP has in the federal government. CCSP is
not a federal agency. Rather, it is a structure and a mechanism for
coordinating and integrating federal research on global change, and
making recommendations on priorities that federal agencies consider in
their planning, as authorized in the Global Change Research Act of 1990
(GCRA). Research on global change, including climate change, is
sponsored by thirteen federal agencies; the CCSP agencies also include
government entities that do not sponsor research but which play a
critical role in the federal process. The latter are the Office of
Science and Technology Policy, the Council on Environmental Quality,
and the Office of Management and Budget. CCSP fosters coordination of
federal global change activities across thematic and crosscutting
elements that utilize four core approaches: research, observation,
communication and decision support; it also helps to coordinate
international research and cooperation. Member agencies include the
following:
Agency for International Development
Department of Agriculture
Department of Commerce
Department of Defense
Department of Energy
Department of Health and Human Services
Department of the Interior
Department of State
Department of Transportation
Environmental Protection Agency
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Science Foundation
Smithsonian Institution
The program is led by an interagency committee of senior
representatives from the participating departments and agencies that is
responsible for overall priority setting, program direction, management
review, and accountability to deliver program goals. This committee is
chaired by the CCSP Director. Interagency Working Groups for each of
the program's research and crosscutting elements plan and implement
interagency activities and priorities aligned with CCSP's Goals. These
elements include the following: Atmospheric Composition, Climate
Variability and Change / Modeling, Water Cycle, Land-Use and Land-Cover
Change, Carbon Cycle, Human Contributions and Responses / Decision
Support, Observation / Data Management, Communication, and
International Research and Cooperation. CCSP has a single office, the
function of which is to facilitate the activities of the Program by
providing value-added staffing and day-to-day coordination of CCSP-wide
program integration, strategic planning, product development, and
communication.
Global change research activities across CCSP's thirteen
departments and agencies includes research conducted by scientists in
federal agencies, academia, industry, and non-profit organizations
through a mix of directed and competed programs. The Research Plan
provides a summary of ways in which CCSP provides leverage for
individual agency efforts through improved coordination and
communication, and provides an avenue for integrating and producing
reports to Congress that include both research progress and a summary
of future plans. CCSP also provides climate-related input to other
federal and Administration initiatives (e.g., the Ocean Action Plan,
the US Group on Earth Observations), and a way for the federal climate
change research establishment to assess joint opportunities and needs
for programmatic evolution in response to changing societal and
environmental needs.
The Research Plan outlines CCSP's key products. One of these is
CCSP's annual report to Congress, which provides a yearly update on key
scientific findings and plans for the coming fiscal year. CCSP also
sponsors workshops, like the 2005 workshop on Decision Support, which
brought together experts and stakeholders on climate change and its
impacts and yielded a report of its proceedings (http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/finalreport/default.htm
). CCSP
also contributes expertise and support to other national and
international assessments, including the IPCC Fourth Assessment (2007).
Other key products of the Program include the aforementioned 2003 CCSP
Strategic Plan and a series of twenty-one Synthesis and Assessment
Products (in progress) that are one outcome of the substantial
stakeholder engagement in the earlier strategic planning process. These
Synthesis and Assessment reports provide in-depth ``state of the
science'' information responsive to CCSP overarching strategic goals
and related to specific national, regional and sectoral issues. (Please
see http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/default.htm for information
on available products and the status of products in preparation.) In
addition, numerous peer-reviewed scientific papers are published each
year under the auspices of CCSP.
The Research Plan provides an overview of CCSP Program management
and review, including communications; how the Program is structured and
how priorities are established and used; existing and planned annual
and multi-year internal review processes, NRC reports and assessments;
stakeholder
[[Page 73773]]
and community engagement and guidance; ties to other national,
international and sectoral assessments such as IPCC, WMO-UNEP, Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment, and other reports; and linkages to agency
budget processes.
II. Progress, Priorities and Plans
Research Progress towards Goals 2003--2007
Section II of the Research Plan provides an overview of the
Program's progress and priorities. Significant progress has been made
in many areas of climate change research, as evidenced by the
development of the 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products; several of
these reports are now complete and others are in progress. The
accomplishments of the past four years have led not just to advancement
of scientific knowledge, but as significantly, to the evolution and
refinement of the science questions and approaches needed for current
and future global change research. CCSP's strategic goals have a direct
relationship, by design, to the research elements outlined in the GCRA.
The Research Plan provides a crosscut that relates progress across GCRA
research elements to CCSP strategic goals and core approaches, as well
as selected highlights of key progress (and the impacts and societal
benefits resulting from that progress) across the research elements
called for in the GCRA:
(1) Global measurements, establishing and providing stewardship for
the worldwide observations necessary to understand the physical,
chemical and biological processes responsible for changes in the Earth
system on climate-relevant spatial and temporal scales
(2) Documentation of global change, including the development of
mechanisms for recording changes that will actually occur in the Earth
system over the coming decades
(3) Studies of earlier changes in the Earth system, using evidence
from the geologic and fossil record
(4) Predictions, using quantitative models of the Earth system to
identify and simulate global environmental processes and trends, and
the regional implications of such processes and trends
(5) Focused research initiatives to understand the nature of and
interaction among physical, chemical, biological, and social processes
related to global change.
Emerging Priorities
CCSP has an ongoing planning process, to determine yearly
objectives as well as longer-term strategic approaches. The Research
Plan is a reflection of the current stage of these planning activities.
CCSP's planning process uses the vision articulated in the Strategic
Plan for 2003-2013 as a starting point, and is further informed by
CCSP-commissioned reports from the National Research Council (e.g. the
2007 NRC review of CCSP: http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11934
), as well as CCSP-sponsored stakeholder and scientific
outreach, involvement in international global change programs, and a
wide range of assessment activities in which CCSP is involved. This
approach provides the basis for ongoing assessment and alignment of
priorities based on emerging scientific and societal needs.
Any scientific research program must evolve over time based on what
has been learned during earlier periods, and CCSP is no exception. This
is particularly true for an Earth science related program, in which the
past several years have brought dramatic increases in knowledge;
significant advances in the length and quality of observational data
sets (including more comprehensive observations of climatic phenomena
than was previously possible); improvements in the scope, resolution,
and quality of models; and the initiation of several major
observational efforts that have only now begun to yield results for
integrated scientific study, or will appear shortly after the release
of the revised Plan.
One of the most significant advancements of recent years is that
ongoing monitoring of key Earth systems over the past four years and
analysis of records extending back through time have revealed a number
of important Earth system changes and previously-unknown processes,
including (but not limited to), the continuation of warm years; changes
in the cryosphere, e.g. Arctic sea ice coverage, significant changes in
ice mass in Greenland and Antarctica, and permafrost temperature;
changes in patterns and frequency of wildfire; changes in species
distributions; ocean acidification and its consequences; changes in
storminess; hydrologic changes; and the recognition of unexpected
behavior in seasonal greenness in tropical and temperate forests.
Continued collection of paleoenvironmental data has also provided a
basis for understanding the importance of not just climate change, but
also climate variability and the potential for abrupt changes, to Earth
systems. This legacy of past observations is key to understanding
potential future changes and impacts.
Long- and short-term monitoring efforts have benefited from
advances in technology and analysis capabilities; however, there are
significant challenges associated with these gains. These issues were
the subject of a CCSP internal workshop on Observations in 2006.
Drawing from the report of that workshop, the Research Plan addresses
the major issues relative to observations, including: (1) advances and
issues in capabilities and their implications; (2) gains and losses in
orbital and ground-based observations networks, including NPOESS,
Landsat-like systems and other climate sensors; (3) long- vs. short-
term observations; (4) advances in (and costs of) computational and
data storage and retrieval capacity; and 5) the increased sensitivity,
scope and comprehensiveness of climate models and the needs thereof.
In the four years since the 2003 Strategic Plan was published, the
climate community has also completed work on several important
assessments, including the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (to which CCSP
made substantial scientific contributions) and the Synthesis and
Assessment Products being developed under the auspices of CCSP, which
have helped to integrate many related scientific areas and to provide a
comprehensive report on the state of the science. These assessments
have had a significant influence on the broader climate policy
community, and have helped to shape external dialogues and to frame the
new questions that face policymakers. These discussions within the user
community have already begun to place increased demands on CCSP to
provide more regionally-resolved and sector-specific information about
climate, its societal impacts and vulnerabilities, and to provide the
rigorous scientific basis to support increased societal planning for
adaptation to and mitigation of the effects of climate change.
As a direct result of the past four years of Program activity and
progress, as well as recognition of the important changes to earth
systems noted above, there are significant new demands on CCSP. The
most substantial of these is the need for information at a scale that
is pertinent to direct land- and resource management issues, in order
to support decision-making. The development of robust partnerships will
be an essential component of CCSP's response to these needs. These
areas include not just climate change itself but improved understanding
of associated issues of climate change impacts, adaptation,
vulnerability, and sustainability, as well
[[Page 73774]]
as the need for tools for the delivery of information for decision
support in a manner that is both timely and useful, and at scales that
are relevant, to stakeholders' needs.
This section of the Research Plan contains specific examples of
issues and events that influence CCSP's research directions. The list
of examples includes such major developments as:
Dramatic increases in knowledge
Significant advances in the length and quality of
observational data sets
Improvements in scope, resolution, and quality of models
and modeling efforts
Initiation of major new climate sensors and observational
efforts that are now beginning to yield results for integrated
scientific study, and potential loss of others
Completion of important assessments, including the IPCC
Fourth Assessment, assessments by WMO/UNEP, the Arctic Climate Impact
Assessment, and CCSP's Synthesis and Assessment Products
Research and Programmatic Plans
The sections outlined above are intended to provide an overview of
the structure and purpose of CCSP, its products, accomplishments and
challenges, and the progress which has led to the emergence of new
priorities and changed emphases over the past four years. The remainder
of the Research Plan's content is devoted to the articulation of Plans
for the Program both programmatically and as related to CCSP's
strategic goals, for the period 2008--2010 and beyond.
A sampling of programmatic and research plans is provided in this
Summary. However, it is anticipated that the full scope of these plans
will be developed with inclusion of the public input that results from
the publication of this Summary. Since the public input to this
Research Plan will be an essential component in developing the research
directions of CCSP, this input will also be considered in the
development of the current Scientific Assessment as required by the
GCRA. The GCRA requires that the Scientific Assessment integrates,
evaluates, and interprets the findings of the [United States Global
Change Research] Program. The current Scientific Assessment is under
development; it will integrate and draw from many sources, including
the 2003 Strategic Plan, the Synthesis and Assessment Products, and
this Research Plan, including the public comments received during the
Research Plan's development, and other published sources. By
promulgating this Summary, CCSP invites and encourages public comment
to help inform both the development of the Research Plan and the
articulation of CCSP's future research priorities.
In addition to research plans aimed at achieving objectives
associated directly with CCSP's strategic goals, CCSP intends to
explore ways in which to improve and extend its achievement of
programmatic goals. Issues related to the crosscutting elements of
modeling, observations systems and networks, stakeholder engagement and
communication of CCSP results to the public, to non-governmental
organizations, to the climate change technology community and to state
and local officials and other decisionmakers are among the areas for
needed growth that were identified by the National Research Council in
its recent report on CCSP progress (NRC 2007). Over the next three
years CCSP will actively consider responses to these needs to determine
and implement effective approaches. The CCSP agencies will also
continue to take a leadership role in the dissemination of results and
products that come from the program's research, observations, and
decision support activities. In particular, the program will ensure
that the conclusions from its assessment products and activities are
widely communicated. In addition, the program will coordinate the
development of interagency climate-related communications with those of
the member agencies to help assure that the accomplishments of the
overall national investment in climate-related science are understood
and are widely available to users of the information.
The scope of CCSP scientific research is far-reaching. CCSP
Strategic Goals encompass everything from basic scientific research on
Earth's past and present climate and climate variability, the forces
that result in changes to Earth's climate and related systems, reducing
uncertainties in projecting future change and its consequences and the
sensitivity/adaptability of both ecosystems and human systems, all the
way to the application of the knowledge gained to the decisionmaking
process for the management of risks and development of strategies for
adaptation to climate change. In the four years since the release of
the Strategic Plan, investment in and progress towards CCSP Goals 1
through 3 has been greater than that for Goals 4 and 5. Significant
advances have been made in documenting climate changes and
understanding the interconnected workings of Earth systems.
Improvements in modeling capabilities have fostered a better
understanding of forcing factors and couplings between ocean,
atmosphere and land systems. Relative to the state of the science four
years ago, substantial progress has been made in understanding and
predicting climate change and variability at global and continental
scales. Accordingly, strides have been made in characterizing and
reducing the uncertainties associated with projecting the magnitudes
and effects of future climate and related systems change. The value of
these results is demonstrated by their inclusion in and importance to
the IPCC 4th Assessment.
As stated in Section I above, CCSP's Goals provide the focus and
direction for the program, to ensure that knowledge developed by the
participating agencies and research elements can be integrated and
synthesized, and this remains the overarching strategy for the program.
The following descriptions provide a sense of the strategic purpose and
scope encompassed by these goals, and the way in which the goals inform
research, observations, decision support and communications throughout
the program:
CCSP Goal (1): Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present
climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve
understanding of the causes of observed variability and change
Climate conditions change significantly over the span of weeks,
seasons, years, decades, and even longer time scales. CCSP research
will improve understanding of natural oscillations in climate on time
scales from weeks to centuries, including improving and harnessing ENSO
forecasts, a large-scale climate oscillation with implications for
resource and disaster management. Research will continue to sharpen
qualitative and quantitative understanding of climate extremes, and to
what degree any changes in their frequency or intensity lie outside the
range of natural variability, through improved observations, analysis,
and modeling. The program also will continue to expand and refine
observations, monitoring, and data/information system capabilities and
increase confidence in our understanding of how and why climate is
changing. Fostering improved interactions and connectivity between
research and ongoing operational measurements and activities continues
to be another important aspect of the program's work.
CCSP Goal (2): Improve quantification of the forces bringing about
changes in the Earth's climate and related systems
[[Page 73775]]
Combustion of fossil fuels, changes in land cover and land use, and
industrial activities produce greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and
alter the composition of the atmosphere and physical and biological
properties of the Earth's surface. These changes have several important
climatic effects, the quantification of which has improved dramatically
in recent years but upon which a substantial amount of work remains to
be done. Research conducted through CCSP will continue to address the
reduction of uncertainty in the sources and sinks of GHGs; aerosols and
their precursors; the long range atmospheric transport of GHGs and
aerosols and their precursors; and the interactions of GHGs and
aerosols with global climate, ozone in the upper and lower layers of
the atmosphere, and regional-scale air quality. It will continue to
improve quantification of the interactions among the carbon cycle,
other biological and ecological processes, and land cover and land use
to better project atmospheric concentrations of key greenhouse gases
and to support improved decisionmaking. The program will also continue
to work towards improved capabilities for developing and applying
emissions scenarios in research and analysis, in cooperation with the
Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP).
CCSP Goal (3): Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's
climate and related systems may change in the future
While a great deal is now known about the mechanisms that affect
the response of the climate system to changes in natural and human
influences, many questions remain to be addressed and refined. There is
still uncertainty regarding precisely how much climate will change
overall and especially in specific regions. A primary objective of CCSP
is to continue to develop information and scientific capacity needed to
sharpen both qualitative and quantitative understanding through
interconnected observations, data assimilation, and modeling
activities. CCSP-supported research will continue to address basic
climate system properties and the feedbacks or secondary changes that
can either reinforce or dampen the initial and ongoing effects of
greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and changes in land use and land
cover. The program will also continue to address the potential for
future changes in extreme events and uncertainty regarding potential
rapid or abrupt changes in climate. CCSP will also continue to build on
existing U.S. strengths in climate research and modeling, and to
enhance capacity for development of high-end coupled climate and Earth
system models.
CCSP Goal (4): Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of
different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate
and related global changes
Seasonal to annual variability in climate has been connected to
impacts on ecosystems and many aspects of human life. Longer time scale
natural climate cycles and human-induced changes in climate have
additional effects. Improving our ability to assess the potential
implications of variations and future changes in climate and
environmental conditions on ecosystems and human systems could enable
governments, businesses, and communities to mitigate damages and seize
opportunities by adapting infrastructure, activities, and plans. CCSP
research will increasingly examine the interactions of multiple
interacting changes and effects (e.g., the carbon dioxide
``fertilization effect'', deposition of nitrogen and other nutrients,
changes in landscapes that affect water resources and habitats, changes
in frequency of fires or pests) to improve knowledge of sensitivity and
adaptability of systems to climate variability and change. CCSP
research will also improve methods to integrate our understanding of
potential effects of different atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases and to develop methods for aggregating and comparing potential
impacts across different sectors and settings.
CCSP Goal (5): Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving
knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate
variability and change
In recent years, the scientific and technical community has begun
to develop a variety of products to support management of risks and
opportunities related to climate variability and change, but much
remains to be done in this area. CCSP will foster additional studies
and encourage evaluation and learning from these experiences in order
to develop and improve decision support processes and products that use
knowledge to the best effect, while communicating levels of uncertainty
appropriately. Working in partnership with stakeholders and end-users
of this information, CCSP will develop resources (e.g., observations,
databases, data and model products, scenarios, visualization products,
scientific syntheses, assessments, tools and approaches to engage
ongoing consultative mechanisms) to support policymaking, planning,
risk reduction and adaptive management.
As shown above, CCSP Goals 1 through 3 remains important, with
significant research questions that remain to be articulated and
answered. One mechanism by which CCSP undertakes these strategic
priorities is through the development of near-term (i.e.1-3 year)
interagency implementation priorities. One example of a near-term
interagency implementation priority that CCSP has identified as needing
intensive effort is a focus on understanding carbon cycling and climate
change in high latitude regions, since these regions are among the most
rapidly-changing areas of the planet; another is the development of an
integrated Earth system analysis capability to focus toward creation of
a high-quality record of the state of the atmosphere and ocean since
1979, information that is needed in order to improve the assimilation
of land cover and dynamic sea ice modeling into carbon and nutrient
cycling and other crucial areas.
The coming years will see substantially increased need for CCSP to
accelerate progress on Goals 4 and 5, in order to more fully understand
the implications of climate change for both natural and managed
ecosystems and to improve the delivery of that information to land and
resource managers and other stakeholders. This is an important area of
potential growth for CCSP. New foci include improvements in the
reliability of ecological forecasting, in order to foster and support
natural resource management and decision making; an increased emphasis
on the development of an early warning system for the possibility of
abrupt climate change to assist managers and decisionmakers in planning
for sea level rise and other potential rapid changes; and an increased
focus on the development of tools for decision support,; and an
increased focus on the development of tools for decision support, to
improve delivery of needed information in formats and at scales
(particularly regional scales) that maximize their usefulness to
stakeholders.
The increased emphasis on decision support and the delivery of
needed information to stakeholders and decision-makers discussed above
is an example of an evolving overall programmatic priority for CCSP.
Further, each of the thirteen participating agencies also has its own
priorities that make invaluable contributions to CCSP, and which
contribute a large portion of CCSP's progress toward CCSP's strategic
goals. In addition, CCSP has identified specific
[[Page 73776]]
implementation priorities -- important topics that require the
coordinated efforts of multiple agencies. While these implementation
priorities are only a part of the overall program, they are vital
mechanisms through which CCSP integrates agency activities to create
knowledge and products that are greater than the sum of the individual
agency efforts. The following are examples of implementation priorities
for the next few years that are inherently interagency, and that will
contribute to the program's long-term priorities (priorities that are
specific to single agencies are not included here).
Enhanced Carbon Cycle Research on High Latitude Systems
The global carbon cycle has been one of the seven interdisciplinary
science focus areas for CCSP and its GCRP predecessors for many years.
Accomplishments include completion of CCSP Synthesis and Assessment
Product 2.2 ``State of the Carbon Cycle Report''(http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-2/final-report/default.htm
) as
well as improved availability of CO2 measurements and advances in
coupled carbon-climate modeling and assimilation, plus others.
Recognition that high latitude systems are increasingly important
sources of atmospheric carbon as regional warming occurs makes it
critical to improve our understanding of the carbon dynamics in high
latitude systems, and the factors that may lead to changes in those
dynamics. These are crucial elements of global carbon modeling and a
priority for understanding the linkages and feedbacks between carbon,
ecosystems and land cover, hydrology, and climate variability and
change.
Quantification of Climate Forcing and Feedbacks by Aerosols, Non-CO2
Greenhouse Gases, Water Vapor, and Clouds
The need to quantify and understand the impacts of radiative
forcing on climate has long been important to CCSP/GCRP. Advances have
been made in our understanding of climate influences of aerosols,
reactive gas emissions and ozone in both the troposphere and
stratosphere, and these continue to be important. The next level of
complexity adds the importance of water vapor in the upper troposphere
and lower stratosphere, as a key component of the atmospheric system.
There is now increased recognition of the importance of quantifying the
climate forcing associated with aerosols, clouds, the spatially-varying
shorter-lived trace gases, as well as upper tropospheric and lower
stratospheric ozone. Recent analysis, including that associated with
the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, has emphasized this need, and a number of scientific advances
and improvement in observation and modeling capability make the timing
appropriate for an enhanced focus on this topic. Development of an
Integrated Earth System Analysis Capability: A focus toward creating a
high-quality record of the state of the atmosphere and ocean since 1979
Just as the public and decision-makers can today easily access
weather maps (i.e., ``analyses'' of the atmosphere) to support a wide
range of applications, tomorrow's decision-makers need tools to
visualize the evolving state of the climate system over the entire
planet, including its oceans, land surface, and vegetation. Substantial
progress has been made in the development of coupled Earth system
modeling, particularly with the adoption of a common Earth System
Modeling Framework. Historical reanalysis of data for the 20th century,
improvements in coupled ocean-atmosphere analysis capabilities and the
incorporation of land surface processes, sea ice dynamics and the
hydrological cycle will yield an improved record of the state of the
atmosphere and ocean. This effort will contribute to the ability to
separate natural and human-induced climate forcing of climate
variations and change, and will result in improved accessibility of
research-based information on climate variations and impacts to
decision-makers and the public.
Development of an End-to-End Hydrologic Projection and Application
Capability
The need to provide information to water resource managers and
other decision makers on issues related to how climate affects water
availability, drought, and water quality has long been a component of
CCSP activities, and the global water cycle is one of CCSP's identified
research elements. An end-to-end system to provide information to water
resource managers and other decision makers on issues related to how
climate affects water availability, drought, and water quality requires
integration and improvement of existing research and monitoring
capabilities to reduce uncertainties in hydrological/climate
predictions. Assembling the building blocks for the development of an
end-to-end global water cycle infrastructure and an development of an
observations-based Generalized Hydrological (water, energy,
biogeochemical) Modeling/Prediction Framework will help to reduce
uncertainties and improve hydrologic predictions, leading to improved
decision-support information and resources.
Assessing Abrupt Change in a Warming Climate: Toward Development of an
Abrupt Change Early Warning System
Changes in the climate system are considered ``abrupt'' if they
occur more rapidly than the time needed by society and ecosystems to
adapt to them (NRC 2002). Possible impacts range from accelerated
melting of ice sheets and associated sea level rise, severe and
sustained droughts, to systematic changes in weather patterns over
broad regions that may result from changes in ocean circulation. CCSP
has a research element aimed specifically at climate variability and
change, which has fostered considerable progress in our understanding
of past abrupt climate events and the potential causes for rapid
changes. Given this progress, a near-term emphasis is to reduce the
remaining knowledge gaps that limit our ability to provide early
warning assessments of the likelihood of future abrupt climate change,
at global, national and regional scales, over the remainder of this
century. The effort has a special focus on those changes that have the
largest potential impacts, with the overarching goal of providing
policy- and decision-makers with information needed to better assess
and minimize future risks due to abrupt change.
Ecological Forecasting
Ecological forecasting brings together modeling with observations
and results from experiments and process studies to predict the impacts
of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes on life-sustaining
ecosystems. Many CCSP agencies are engaged in activities that include
components of an ecological forecasting capability to address critical
emerging questions. Progress has been made in such areas as documenting
changes occurring in boreal forests. This has set the stage for
reducing scientific uncertainty about possible future changes in
primary production, biogeochemistry, and biodiversity, to findings that
show that global oceanic phytoplankton productivity responds to changes
in upper-ocean temperature and stratification. Work for the coming
years builds upon earlier investigations to expand the development of
models linking geophysical and ecological phenomena, to better
characterize the uncertainty associated with linked models, and thus to
provide more
[[Page 73777]]
reliable ecological forecasts. The result will be an enhanced
understanding of ecological response to changing climate as well as
improved natural resource management and decision-making.
The full Revised Research Plan includes--for both programmatic and
strategic goals--the identification of emerging societal and scientific
needs; the changes and shifts in emphasis to major scientific questions
that have resulted from advances in knowledge and other
accomplishments; the most urgent research needs that have emerged; and
the expected outcomes, products, impacts and societal benefits. The
brief examples above suggest the direction that CCSP will evolve in the
future, towards increased engagement with stakeholders and increased
attention towards relevance of scientific results to decisionmaking and
policymaking. The full scope of the Research Plan will reflect the
public input that results from the publication of this Summary. By
publishing this Summary, CCSP invites and encourages public comment to
help inform both the development of the Research Plan and the
articulation of CCSP's future research priorities.
III. End Matter
In keeping with CCSP policy and its legacy of openness and
transparency of process, the Research Plan will close with information
regarding the preparation of the Research Plan, including but not
limited to, a listing of: (1) Authors; (2) Reviewers; (3) References;
(4) Sources of images and other figures; and (5) Important Links and
Contact Information.
Dated: December 21, 2007.
William J. Brennan,
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for International Affairs, and
Acting Director, Climate Change Science Program.
[FR Doc. E7-25254 Filed 12-27-07; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3510-12-S